ActionSA could find it challenging to replicate its 2021 electoral performance when South Africans head to the polls for this year's municipal elections, particularly after 50 of its members in Johannesburg opted to cross over to the DA last week.
Prof. Theo Neethling, a political analyst from Akademia's Department of Social Sciences, warned that such a departure might erode ActionSA's grassroots presence should voters interpret it as a sign the party is haemorrhaging members to a rival. "However, we must be careful not to read too much into this as it seems to be limited to parts of Soweto and does not yet indicate a major trend," says Neethling. He noted that the developments underscore the fiercely competitive nature of opposition politics in South Africa, particularly with local elections on the horizon where coalitions and constituency-level backing are pivotal.
Prof. Andre Duvenhage, a political analyst at the North-West University (NWU), took a firmer view, suggesting the defections could ultimately diminish ActionSA's electoral support over time. "I think it will be difficult for the party to reach the same level of support as it used to have," says Duvenhage. He placed the shift within a broader political realignment, noting that as the ANC's historically dominant position weakens, rival parties are scrambling to reposition themselves. "This leads to a situation where politicians and supporters move from one party to another," he explained.
Duvenhage added that the DA likely offers these individuals stronger political prospects, given its established national structures compared to ActionSA's more limited governing capacity. He also cautioned that member departures can point to internal organisational difficulties. "When people feel they no longer have a future within a party, or when expectations are not met, then they leave," he said. Similar party-hopping has already occurred across several provinces as new alliances and coalitions take shape.
The analyst recalled that ActionSA enjoyed considerable momentum following its founding in 2020, with many supporters viewing it as a moderate alternative between the ANC, the DA and the EFF. Yet after the 2024 national elections, the party fell short of the role some backers had envisioned, especially in urban centres like Gauteng. Duvenhage drew a comparison with the Congress of the People (Cope), which also launched with significant energy before its support gradually faded.
ActionSA founder and leader Herman Mashaba declined to engage on the matter. "I don't have time to respond to such questions. It adds no value to the party or the people we represent," he said.
