Standard Bank's leading political economist Simon Freemantle has called on South Africa to move beyond stabilisation and into an urgent phase of economic acceleration. Freemantle, who has held the top spot in Financial Mail's political economy analyst rankings for a decade running, argues that while the country's recovery is underway, the current growth rate of between 1% and 2% remains insufficient to address the nation's deep unemployment crisis.
"It's not like we're sitting here going, how do we start the recovery? No, now we're talking about the acceleration. How do we accelerate growth," Freemantle told media. He outlined three critical requirements for this next phase: more assertive presidential leadership, meaningful buy-in from the private sector and civil society, and a sense of responsibility from political leaders to sustain the momentum.
According to Freemantle, the greatest threats to accelerated growth stem from political and policy uncertainty, with organised crime and failing local government acting as substantial constraints on economic recovery. He stressed that President Cyril Ramaphosa's commitments at SONA to confront organised crime must be backed by visible and urgent action to restore investor confidence. "The rule of law, the policing and the security situation is essential to creating a conducive environment for investment," he stated.
Freemantle highlighted the Madlanga Commission and Operation Vulindlela as two pivotal initiatives capable of shifting the dial on execution and investment. He praised Vulindlela as a compelling example of how a compact, politically backed unit operating from the Presidency can deliver results, citing electricity, logistics, visa reforms and water as key areas of intervention. He noted the model had also succeeded in bringing the private sector into government efforts in a more structured manner.
On the crisis in local government, which the Auditor-General has confirmed is performing dismally, Freemantle warned that municipalities are where enterprises either flourish or encounter crippling obstacles. Persistent water shortages, failing electricity infrastructure, high crime levels and the growing illicit economy are all undermining businesses at ground level, he said.
Despite positive developments such as the end of load shedding, progress in the Transnet recovery and the resilience of the Government of National Unity, Freemantle cautioned against complacency. "These are very good things, but we have to guard against complacency," he warned, urging a coordinated national effort to translate early gains into the sustained growth needed to create millions of jobs over the coming decade.
